Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Madrid on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid's highest temperature on 21 July 2026 will be recorded at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport and resolved against Wunderground historical data. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either a technical issue or extreme uncertainty about which bracket will settle. Traders accessing this contract on Polygon via USDC will need to select their preferred temperature band before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date.

Historical July temperatures at Madrid-Barajas reveal a consistent pattern. The airport station has recorded highs exceeding 40°C in roughly half of July days over the past two decades, with peaks regularly reaching 42–44°C during heat waves. The 2022 European summer heatwave saw Madrid hit 45°C, whilst more moderate Julys have peaked around 35–38°C. This historical range suggests the market's zero probability across all brackets reflects a data or platform issue rather than genuine uncertainty about whether some temperature will be recorded.

Traders should monitor Spanish meteorological forecasts from AEMET (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología) as July 2026 approaches, particularly for Atlantic pressure systems or North African heat advection patterns that typically drive Madrid's summer extremes. The specific settlement mechanism—using Wunderground's highest recorded temperature for the full calendar day—means traders must account for the timing of peak heating, usually occurring between 14:00 and 16:00 local time. Any platform clarification on the current zero-probability display should be sought before committing capital to conditional token positions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.