Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Manila will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the resolution sourced from Wunderground’s daily history for that station. The market currently prices the 34°C range at 100% probability, while the “26°C or below” outcome sits at 0%, reflecting a strong consensus among traders that extreme heat is unlikely during Manila’s wet season.

Historically, July falls within the Philippines’ wet season, which spans June to October, with average daytime temperatures in Manila ranging between 26°C and 31°C [2]. While the dry season (November to May) sees hotter peaks—March and April being the hottest months, with averages up to 32°C—July typically brings heavy rainfall and moderated heat [2][3]. However, anomalies exist: PAGASA recorded a maximum of 38.6°C at NAIA in Pasay City on a historic day, suggesting that extreme spikes can still occur despite seasonal trends [9].

Traders should monitor PAGASA’s daily weather bulletins and Wunderground’s real-time updates for NAIA, as sudden convective storms or heat domes could shift temperatures unexpectedly. Recent forecasts for July 2026 indicate daily highs between 83°F and 94°F (28.3°C–34.4°C), with an average high of 89°F (31.7°C) [5]. Any official announcements regarding tropical disturbances or unusual atmospheric pressure patterns could act as catalysts, so staying aligned with on-chain conditional tokens on Polygon and USDC settlements is essential for timely positioning [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Manila on July 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.