Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Manila on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the peak temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 30 June 2026, where daytime highs in Manila typically reach 32°C amid very high heat and humidity, falling to 24°C overnight[3]. Historical data confirms this range, with Metro Manila recently logging a record 38.8°C at the same PAGASA station, and a recent peak of 36.8°C on 21 June 2026[10][7]. Current Polymarket consensus heavily favours the 29°C outcome at 62%, with 30°C at 30%, reflecting PAGASA short-range guidance of 25–33°C for the period[1]. The 0% probability for a "YES" outcome on the current contract likely stems from a misalignment between the specific binary question and the multi-outcome temperature distribution traders are pricing.

Traders should monitor the daily 5:00 AM Public Weather Forecast issued by DOST-PAGASA, which details high temperatures expected from noon to afternoon, as these directly influence the resolution source from Wunderground[6]. Recent forecasts indicated Metro Manila's heat index could reach 44°C, signalling dangerous apparent temperatures that often correlate with higher actual maxima[4]. On-chain mechanics involve conditional tokens settled in USDC on the Polygon network, where liquidity flows into the 29°C and 30°C bins based on these official updates. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 30 June 2026, meaning any late-morning temperature spikes recorded at the airport will determine the final outcome before the market resolves.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Manila on June 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.