Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Mexico City's highest temperature on 24 July 2026 will be measured at Benito Juárez International Airport, the official weather station used for settlement. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polymarket, suggesting either a technical listing issue or that traders have not yet engaged with this contract. Settlement depends on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date and location, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on 24 July 2026.

July represents Mexico City's rainy season, when afternoon thunderstorms frequently develop and suppress afternoon highs. Historical data from the airport station shows July daily maxima typically range between 24–27°C, substantially cooler than the city's dry-season peaks. The 0% crowd probability reflects the contract's early stage rather than any meteorological certainty; comparable July weather contracts on Polymarket have seen meaningful trading activity once traders recognise the settlement mechanism and historical temperature distributions.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Mexican meteorological service's seasonal forecasts and any El Niño or La Niña updates from NOAA, which influence regional precipitation patterns and cloud cover during July. Real-time weather models become actionable only in the final week before settlement, as medium-range forecasts (beyond ten days) carry substantial uncertainty in Mexico City's complex highland climate. The contract's illiquidity at present means early positioning could shift implied probabilities significantly once initial trades establish reference prices.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.