Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Munich on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport’s 1 August high is priced at just **1% YES** on Polymarket, so the contract is trading as a near-total rejection of a very hot outcome rather than a view on the day’s exact top temperature. The market resolves from the **highest temperature recorded at Munich Airport Station** on 1 August 2026, with settlement in **USDC on Polygon** through conditional tokens, and the key practical question is which Wunderground temperature band the day’s maximum falls into.[17]

That low price is consistent with Munich’s late-summer climate: August highs typically sit around **24–25°C**, while extreme heat is uncommon but not impossible, with record August highs in the high **30s°C** across long-run datasets.[1][4][14] Comparable daily records show that 1 August itself has sometimes produced much warmer readings than the monthly average, so a sub-5% or sub-10% tail price is not unusual when traders focus on the chance of a genuinely hot day rather than the average forecast.[4][7]

For traders, the main catalyst is the intraday forecast path around Munich Airport rather than any scheduled announcement. Short-term temperature spikes depend on sunshine, cloud cover, wind and whether an airmass turns hotter during the day; AccuWeather’s August 2026 outlook for Munich currently shows daily highs in the low-to-low-80s °F range, but that does not guarantee the airport station will hit any specific Wunderground bracket.[13] Because the market can only resolve once the day is complete at the source station, the live Wunderground history page is the decisive reference, while the on-chain position itself remains a standard conditional-token claim until the final reading is available.[17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.