Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Munich on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 August 2026, Munich Airport's weather station will record a daily high temperature in Celsius, and this market settles to whichever range bracket contains that figure. The crowd currently prices all outcome ranges at 0% YES, reflecting either extreme uncertainty about which specific band will resolve or a technical pricing anomaly common in weather markets with many discrete outcomes. USDC settlement on Polygon means conditional tokens will pay out only for the single range that matches the actual recorded high, making this a pure categorical bet rather than a directional wager.

Munich's August climate provides a historical baseline: the city averages daily highs around 24–25°C in mid-August, with typical ranges between 20–28°C depending on synoptic patterns. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) records show that extreme August highs above 32°C occur roughly once per decade, whilst readings below 15°C are similarly rare. The 0% pricing across all ranges suggests the market may lack sufficient liquidity or participant conviction to establish meaningful odds, a pattern seen in granular weather contracts where resolution hinges on precise instrumental readings rather than binary outcomes.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European weather forecasting models from mid-July 2026 onwards, particularly the ECMWF and DWD ensemble runs showing high-pressure systems or Atlantic frontal activity. Any heat dome positioning over central Europe in early August would shift probability mass toward higher temperature brackets. The resolution mechanism's explicit reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—not the Day High & Low summary—means traders must verify which data source the platform ultimately uses, as discrepancies between summary and granular records have occasionally triggered disputes in weather market settlements.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.