Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Munich on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport will record a daily maximum temperature on 17 August 2026, measured via the official Weather Underground station's hourly observations table. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polygon, reflecting the contract's recent creation and minimal trading activity; this zero-probability state is typical for weather markets months in advance, where conditional token liquidity pools have not yet attracted meaningful positions. Settlement hinges on the Daily Observations dataset rather than the Day High & Low summary, a distinction that matters when automated weather stations report conflicting figures—traders should verify which source Weather Underground prioritises for Munich Airport Station before committing capital.

Munich's August climate shows considerable year-to-year variation. Historical data from 2015 to 2024 reveals daily highs ranging from 23°C to 36°C during mid-August, with most years clustering between 26°C and 32°C. The 2022 European heatwave pushed temperatures to 35°C on 17 August that year, whilst cooler patterns in 2021 saw only 24°C. This spread suggests the market will likely distribute probability across multiple temperature bands rather than concentrate on a single outcome.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting updates from mid-July onwards, when seasonal patterns become clearer. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Mediterranean high-pressure systems drive August temperatures across Bavaria; any early-summer heat dome formation or Atlantic storm systems could signal directional bias. Current USDC liquidity on Polygon remains thin, meaning early position-builders face wider spreads but may establish favourable entry points before crowd participation increases closer to the resolution date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.