Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Munich on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, the Munich Airport Station will record its peak temperature in degrees Celsius, a single data point that determines whether the "YES" outcome for the 28°C bracket resolves. Polymarket prices this contract today at 0% probability, reflecting the market’s conviction that such a high is virtually impossible under current conditions. The on-chain mechanics are straightforward: traders use USDC on the Polygon network to buy conditional tokens, where the payout hinges entirely on the official Wunderground reading for that specific day.

Historical patterns for Munich in July show daily highs typically ranging between 21°C and 32°C, rarely exceeding 37°C even during heatwaves. The average high for July sits around 25°C, with daily highs increasing by roughly 3°F from early to late month. While Germany recorded a national high of 41.3°C in late June 2026, Munich’s airport station has not consistently matched such extremes, and the 0% price suggests traders view a 28°C peak as an outlier event rather than a plausible forecast[1][2][4].

Traders should monitor the European heatwave schedule and any official announcements from the German Meteorological Service regarding upcoming high-pressure systems. The resolution source, Wunderground, will publish the first data point for 9 July only after the settlement window closes, creating a dependency on timely data ingestion. Recent forecasts for Munich in July 2026 indicate highs between 18°C and 33°C, with no immediate indication of a sustained heatwave that would push temperatures to 28°C, reinforcing the current market pricing[2][5][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.