Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's peak temperature on 10 August 2026 will be measured at LaGuardia Airport and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with the market currently pricing a 2% probability that the day's high will exceed a specific threshold. The settlement mechanism uses USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens reflecting discrete temperature bands; traders holding YES tokens profit if the recorded maximum falls within their designated range, whilst NO holders benefit if it falls below.

August in New York typically sees highs between 28–32°C (82–90°F), with extreme heat above 35°C (95°F) occurring in roughly 10–15% of years historically. The 2% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a notably hot outcome—likely above 32°C—as distinctly unlikely for that specific date. Comparable August heat events, such as the 2021 heatwave that pushed NYC temperatures to 37°C, remain outliers; most years see at least one day in the low-to-mid 30s, but sustained extreme heat requires specific atmospheric conditions. The current pricing reflects base-rate scepticism about an unusually hot single day rather than seasonal patterns.

Traders should monitor the Climate Prediction Center's extended outlooks released in late July 2026, which typically provide 8–14 day forecasts indicating whether ridge-building high-pressure systems are expected over the Northeast. Tropical activity in the Atlantic during early August can also influence humidity and convective patterns. The National Weather Service's official forecast, issued 7–10 days prior, will sharpen expectations; any signals of a heat dome or stalled front would likely shift market pricing materially upwards from current levels.

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.