Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this NYC heat contract around the mid-80s Fahrenheit outcome, with the market page showing 86–87°F as the leading bracket and the adjacent 84–85°F band also attracting meaningful interest. On the current book, the contract is not priced like a coin flip; traders on Polygon are attaching a clear lean to a warm-but-not-extreme LaGuardia reading, with shares settling through USDC via conditional tokens.

That shape fits the recent run of comparable late-summer New York pricing, where modest shifts in cloud cover, humidity and sea breeze have tended to move the market between adjacent temperature bands rather than across wide gaps. The key practical point is that this market resolves off Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table at LaGuardia, not the Day High & Low summary, so intraday prints matter more than the headline daily high.

For a trader, the main catalysts are the same ones that move terminal airport temperatures: the latest National Weather Service guidance, any overnight update to model consensus, and whether afternoon convection, smoke, or onshore flow trims the top end. Recent live forecast pages pointed to highs around 86–87°F for New York on 14 August, with only a modest precipitation chance and no strong signal for a major cooling event, which helps explain why the market sits concentrated in the upper-80s neighbourhood.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.