Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's maximum temperature on 16 August 2026 will be measured at LaGuardia Airport and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with the market resolving to whichever temperature range bracket contains that reading in degrees Fahrenheit. The current market pricing reflects zero probability across all temperature bands, a technical artefact of how Polymarket's conditional token structure initialises contracts before meaningful trading volume establishes price discovery. USDC settlement on Polygon will occur once the observation is confirmed post-settlement window closure on 16 August at 12:00 UTC.

August temperatures at LaGuardia typically peak between 82–88°F, with historical August 16 highs clustering around 85°F based on thirty-year normals. The 0% crowd probability suggests either thin initial liquidity or traders awaiting clearer range definitions before committing capital to any bracket. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket show similar flat pricing in their opening hours, with meaningful probability mass emerging only after the first substantive trades establish anchoring prices.

The National Weather Service's extended forecast and any Atlantic tropical activity tracking become material catalysts through mid-August 2026. Heat dome formation or coastal low-pressure systems could shift outcomes materially from seasonal norms. Traders should monitor NWS discussions and tropical cyclone advisories issued in the ten days preceding the settlement date, as these typically drive repricing in weather prediction markets. LaGuardia's specific microclimate—influenced by urban heat island effects and proximity to water—means local conditions may diverge from broader regional forecasts.

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.