Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract implying **0% YES** today, even though the live order book is already pointing traders towards a warm but not extreme outcome for LaGuardia on 3 August 2026. The leading price bands sit around the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, with **82–83°F** and **84–85°F** the closest outcomes, which is a very different signal from the outright nil probability shown on the market page.[1] Because the market resolves off the **highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station** on Wunderground, not a citywide average, late-day observations and any data revisions still matter until the next day’s first datapoint is published.[1]

For context, New York City in August usually sits in a warm but not reliably scorching range, so a result in the low-to-mid 80s is consistent with the seasonal baseline rather than an exceptional spike. The market is also being priced on **USDC collateral** via **Polygon** conditional tokens, so the exchange rate is really a live map of where traders think the final hourly high will land, not a forecast of the day’s whole weather profile. Recent comparative weather pages for New York in August show typical daytime highs around the low 80s, which makes the leading buckets plausible and leaves the tail outcomes dependent on whether the day runs a little cooler or a little hotter than forecast.[2][4][9]

The key catalysts are the official forecast track, morning and midday model updates, and whether showers or thunderstorms cap the temperature before the daily maximum is set. On the market page, Polymarket notes that National Weather Service and model guidance had already clustered around **82–85°F**, which explains why adjacent bands are close together and why minor forecast changes can shift price between them.[1] Traders should also watch for any local weather headlines on heat, cloud cover, or storm risk, because even a brief convective shower can trim the high enough to move the final Wunderground reading into a neighbouring range.[10][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.