Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s 8 August heat contract has already been priced as a near-locked outcome on Polymarket, with the current crowd-implied probability sitting at **0% YES** for the field of alternatives and the market effectively concentrated around the hottest-bin expectation. On Polymarket, buyers are trading USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, so the listed price is the market’s live consensus on what Weather Underground’s LaGuardia Airport station will ultimately record in its Daily Observations table, not the broader city headline or any separate summary figure. [3][12]

The current read sits in a familiar pattern for late-summer New York temperature markets: once the day has largely played out and airport observations are in hand, probability tends to collapse towards the bin that matches the realised maximum. Weather sources available during the session showed LaGuardia near 89°F late on 8 August, while the National Weather Service’s Central Park report logged a 91°F maximum for the prior day, underscoring that this was a hot stretch but not an extraordinary outlier by New York standards. [2][4][5] That matters because these contracts are resolved off a specific station and a specific data table, so small station-to-station differences can determine which temperature range wins even when the broader city felt uniformly hot. [3][12]

For traders, the key catalysts are the publication timing and any late revisions in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations feed, because the market stays tied to the first datapoint for the following date and ignores later alterations once that cutoff has passed. [3] That means the practical watchlist is simple: the KLGA daily history page, the timestamp of the first 9 August observation, and any discrepancy between the detailed observations and the summary view. Recent local weather coverage pointed to a hot, stormy Saturday in the city, which is relevant mainly insofar as convective weather can cap the maximum if it arrives early enough, but once the daily record is set the on-chain settlement path is mechanical rather than interpretive. [11][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.