Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is whether LaGuardia Airport in New York City will record a temperature exceeding 100°F on 1 July 2026, a threshold that currently carries a zero per cent implied probability of being met. On Polymarket, this contract is priced at 0% YES, reflecting a market consensus that the day will not breach extreme heat records, despite the settlement window closing on 2026-07-01T12:00:00Z and the trade being executed in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens.

Historical data frames this probability as highly conservative, given that LaGuardia has recorded 100°F or higher on multiple recent dates, including 100°F on 29 July 2025 and 101°F on 26 June 1952[10]. Other records for early July include 105°F at Newark and 107°F at LaGuardia, both set in 1966[5], while the 2026 July forecast anticipates daily highs ranging from 81°F to 99°F[6]. The current 0% price ignores these precedents, suggesting traders expect a significant departure from the typical July heat pattern.

Traders should monitor the first heat wave of 2026, which Governor Hochul has warned could bring mid-90s temperatures or higher this week, with Thursday potentially being the peak[9]. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast for the morning and late afternoon on 1 July, which may suppress temperatures[2], but damaging winds and large hail remain threats if storms intensify[7]. The resolution depends entirely on the final Wunderground data point for LaGuardia, making real-time weather updates and official National Weather Service climatological reports critical catalysts for price movement[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.