Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently enduring a heatwave, with temperatures hitting 100°F in Central Park earlier this month, yet the Polymarket contract for the highest temperature at LaGuardia on 12 July 2026 sits at 0% probability for any specific range above the baseline [7]. On-chain, traders are locking USDC into conditional tokens on Polygon, betting that the day will not exceed historical extremes despite the active heatwave. The market’s zero pricing suggests the crowd expects a significant cooldown or a range that has already been priced out by recent volatility.

Historically, LaGuardia has recorded highs of 101°F in July, tying records from 1952, while nearby JFK recently hit 102°F during this current wave [4]. Long-term averages for July in New York sit around 84°F, with daytime maximums typically reaching 29°C (84°F), meaning the current 0% probability implies a belief that today will not breach the 90°F+ threshold seen in recent record-breaking days [2][3]. Traders should view this as a divergence between the active heatwave and the specific settlement window, where the crowd anticipates a rapid temperature drop before the 12:00 UTC cutoff.

The primary catalyst to watch is the National Weather Service’s hourly point forecast for KLGA, which will confirm if the heatwave persists or breaks before settlement [8]. Recent updates indicate a 40% chance of afternoon rain, which could suppress temperatures significantly below the 100°F highs recorded on 2 July [8]. As the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, the on-chain position will resolve based on the Wunderground daily high for LaGuardia, making the immediate forecast the only variable that can shift the current static pricing [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.