Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 July 2026, LaGuardia Airport will record a daily high temperature, and this market resolves to whichever Fahrenheit range contains that figure. Polymarket currently prices all temperature brackets at 0%, reflecting the contract's nascent state roughly eighteen months before settlement. The conditional token structure means traders are effectively pricing the probability distribution of New York City's summer heat on a specific future date, with USDC collateral locked across Polygon until the Wunderground historical record closes the position.

New York's July temperatures cluster predictably within established bounds. Since 1940, LaGuardia has recorded July highs ranging from 68°F to 102°F, with the median daily high around 82°F and the interquartile range spanning 77–87°F. Extreme heat days—those exceeding 95°F—occur in roughly 10–15% of July days historically, whilst temperatures below 75°F appear in fewer than 5% of cases. The 2024 summer saw persistent heat waves across the Northeast, with several days above 90°F, though this represents cyclical variation rather than a structural shift in July's thermal profile.

The National Weather Service's seasonal outlook and any Atlantic hurricane activity in early July 2026 will shape atmospheric conditions heading into mid-month. Tropical systems can suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst high-pressure systems anchored over the Northeast typically drive readings into the low-to-mid 90s. Current climate models remain too distant to offer meaningful guidance, but traders monitoring June 2026 weather patterns and any official heat advisories issued in early July will have the clearest signal of likely outcomes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.