Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 2 July 2026 is the real-world event determining this market’s outcome, with the crowd currently pricing a 0% chance for the “YES” outcome. On Polymarket, this contract trades on the Polygon network using USDC, where conditional tokens reflect the market’s deep scepticism that temperatures will breach the specified threshold. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 2 July 2026, with Wunderground serving as the definitive resolution source for the daily high at KLGA.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability: LaGuardia’s average July high is 87°F, with recent forecasts suggesting highs in the low-to-mid-90s, yet the record high for 2 July remains 101°F (set in 1966), and the all-time record for the airport is 107°F on 3 July 1966[6][8]. Even with today’s forecast of 91°F maximum yesterday and projections of 92–94°F for 2 July, the threshold required to trigger the “YES” outcome appears statistically improbable given the 0% crowd-implied probability[1][5].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s climatological updates and Wunderground’s hourly logs for 2 July, as sudden thunderstorm activity or humidity spikes could alter the daily high[1][5]. Recent alerts indicate unstable air building with heavy downpours and gusty winds possible, which may suppress peak temperatures despite the heat[1]. No official announcements are expected to override the weather data, so the market’s resolution hinges entirely on the observed maximum temperature at KLGA as recorded by Wunderground.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.