Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s highest temperature on 20 July 2026, recorded at LaGuardia Airport, is the real-world event this contract settles on. On Polymarket today, the market prices the “YES” outcome for any temperature above 83°F at 0%, while the 82–83°F range commands a 100% implied probability, effectively locking the forecast into that narrow band. Traders holding USDC on Polygon see their conditional tokens reflect this certainty, with no meaningful liquidity elsewhere in the resolution ranges.

Historically, mid-July highs in NYC at LaGuardia typically cluster between 78°F and 86°F, with 82–83°F appearing frequently in warm but not extreme summers. The current 100% pricing on 82–83°F aligns with recent comparable cases, such as July 2023 and 2024, where peak readings landed squarely in that window despite varying humidity and wind patterns. This consistency explains why the crowd has dismissed lower or higher ranges, treating the 82–83°F outcome as the baseline rather than a speculative guess.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for NYC, released daily at 06:00 UTC, which will detail expected highs, cloud cover, and dew points for 20 July. A sudden shift in the forecast—such as a heat dome or coastal front—could trigger rapid repricing, though current models show stable conditions. The settlement source, Wunderground’s LaGuardia daily history page, will publish the official reading by 12:00 UTC on 21 July, finalising the on-chain resolution without manual intervention.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.