Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, with Polymarket currently pricing all outcomes at zero probability—a technical artefact reflecting minimal liquidity rather than meteorological certainty. The settlement mechanism pulls directly from Weather Underground's historical data for that specific station, converting the single daily maximum into a categorical resolution. Traders are effectively pricing the distribution of New York's summer heat across discrete bands, with conditional tokens on Polygon representing claims to each temperature bracket.

New York's July temperatures have historically clustered between 80 and 92 degrees Fahrenheit at LaGuardia, though extremes extend further. The 30-year average high for mid-July sits near 84°F, whilst heat waves have pushed readings above 95°F on multiple occasions—most recently during the summer of 2022. The current zero-probability pricing reflects the market's nascent state rather than any meteorological consensus; establishing realistic price discovery requires sufficient volume to differentiate between plausible temperature ranges.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal climate patterns and any emerging atmospheric signals as summer 2026 approaches. The National Weather Service's extended forecasts, typically issued 8–14 days ahead, will provide the most actionable directional guidance. Broader climate indices—including Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation—influence mid-Atlantic heat patterns, though their predictive power at 18-month horizons remains limited. Early-season performance of the jet stream and any developing heat dome patterns will matter substantially as July approaches.

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 21? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.