Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the 22 July New York City temperature contract at **0% YES** right now, even though the event has already closed on the calendar and settlement still depends on the first later data point being posted at the resolution source. On Polymarket, that means the market is trading **USDC** on Polygon via conditional tokens, with the outcome tied not to the abstract weather in New York but to the highest whole-degree Fahrenheit reading recorded at **LaGuardia Airport Station** for that day.[1]

That 0% print is easiest to read against the contract’s own mechanics: the exchange only resolves once the next day’s first observation is available, and any revisions made before that cut-off can still affect the final figure.[1] Because the source rounds to whole degrees Fahrenheit, the market is effectively a bet on a discrete bucket rather than an exact reading, which is why late-day heat spikes, a sharp thunderstorm outflow, or an adjusted station report can matter more than small intraday differences.

For context, July in New York typically brings highs around **30°C** and lows near **21°C**, so the market’s payoff hinges on where LaGuardia lands relative to the usual summer range rather than on an extreme outlier.[2] Traders watching this kind of contract usually focus on National Weather Service forecast updates, the afternoon peak temperature window, and whether nearby convective weather could cap or amplify the day’s maximum before the airport’s official report is finalised.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 22? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.