Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s high on 23 July 2026 is being priced on Polymarket as a **72%** chance of landing in the **80–81°F** band, with **82–83°F** next at **19%**.[1] The contract settles on the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station, so on-chain traders are effectively buying and selling exposure in USDC on Polygon against a single official Wunderground reading rather than the citywide feel.[1]

That distribution fits a summer pattern where small shifts in cloud cover, sea breeze and thunderstorm timing decide which temperature bucket wins. In practice, the market is less about whether New York feels hot and more about whether the afternoon peak clears the low 80s or stalls one bracket lower, which is why the front end of the range has absorbed most of the probability.[1] The present 0% YES implies the crowd is not pricing a live upside surprise beyond the listed outcome bands, even though late-day weather can still move the final print.[1]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s forecast updates, any thunderstorm timing changes, and whether LaGuardia’s peak arrives before or after cloud build-up or sea-breeze moderation. The key dependency is the official station reading used by Wunderground, not the general NYC forecast, so even a modest hourly revision can shift the settlement band if temperatures hover around 81–83°F. Earlier summer heat headlines showed how quickly expectations in the city can swing when forecasters call for extreme highs, but the settlement here is ultimately decided by the specific recorded maximum at LGA.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.