Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia Airport's peak temperature on 24 July 2026 will be recorded and settled against historical weather data from Wunderground. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability, reflecting that no resolution brackets have attracted liquidity on Polygon yet. Traders holding conditional tokens for whichever range ultimately settles will claim USDC payouts once the settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date.

New York's July heat patterns show considerable year-to-year variation. The historical record for July at LaGuardia stands at 104°F (40°C), set in 1966, though July temperatures typically peak between 82–90°F. The past decade has seen several days exceeding 95°F in late July, including 97°F on 22 July 2019 and 96°F on 24 July 2010. These precedents suggest the most probable outcomes cluster in the 85–95°F range, though outlier heat waves remain plausible given climate patterns.

The National Weather Service's extended forecast for mid-to-late July 2026 will become the primary catalyst for market pricing shifts as the date approaches. Atlantic hurricane activity, upper-level ridge positioning, and heat dome formation in the preceding weeks will determine whether conditions favour typical summer warmth or anomalous heat. Traders should monitor seasonal outlooks from NOAA released in June 2026, which typically refine expectations for July weather patterns across the Northeast. Real-time forecast updates in the final week before settlement will likely drive final price discovery on Polymarket's order book.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.