Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 3 July 2026 is the real-world event this contract settles on, with the market currently pricing a 100–101°F peak at just 33.5% implied probability, while the NO share trades at 67 cents, reflecting a fragmented field of ten competing outcomes and scarce certainty. On Polymarket, this conditional token is priced in USDC on the Polygon network, where the thin liquidity and concentrated volume of nearly $6,850 in the last 24 hours signal that traders see the 100–101°F band as the plurality outcome but still assign a two-in-three chance the peak falls outside it.

Historically, NYC’s July highs rarely breach triple digits, yet the current heat dome stretching from DC to Boston has already pushed Central Park’s heat index to 106°F on 2 July, with forecasts warning of consecutive triple-digit days—the first since 1911—and potential records if temperatures hit 110°F, as noted by the National Weather Service. This context frames the current 0% crowd-implied probability for a higher band as overly cautious, given that LaGuardia’s typical July highs range from 72°F to 98°F, but extreme heat waves have previously driven airport readings into the 100s, making the 100–101°F outcome a plausible, though not dominant, scenario.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s HeatRisk updates and the timing of the heat dome’s westward shift, which is expected to bring relief to the Northeast by Sunday, alongside any announcements of flooding rainfall that could break the wave into the 80s. Recent CNN reporting confirms that over 160 million Americans face extreme heat risk this week, with life-threatening indices likely to top 110°F in mid-Atlantic hotspots, while NBC New York forecasts a chance of showers and storms that may lower temperatures to the 80s by Monday, making the 3 July peak highly dependent on whether the heat wave persists through Friday’s holiday.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.