Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract pinned at **0% YES**, which implies traders are assigning no chance that LaGuardia’s highest reading for 30 July 2026 lands in the range needed for a YES settlement. The market settles from the **Wunderground** daily history for **LaGuardia Airport Station**, so the relevant number is the day’s single highest observed temperature, not the official Central Park figure or a forecast headline. Because the contract is priced in **USDC** and resolves through **conditional tokens** on **Polygon**, the live price is effectively a crowd estimate of where that final airport reading will sit once the daily record is finalised.

For context, New York City can still produce sharp summer spikes even when the broader monthly average is much lower. Central Park hit **100°F** on 3 July 2026, its first triple-digit day since 2012, while the city’s all-time highs sit well above that level; LaGuardia itself has previously printed **107°F** on 3 July 1966, showing the airport can run hotter than the park under the right synoptic set-up.[17][14][6] In late July, though, outcomes are usually driven by whether a strong ridge and dry western flow build over the Northeast; absent that, readings tend to cluster closer to the mid-80s rather than extreme thresholds.[1][13]

A trader watching this market should track any **National Weather Service** heat advisories, air-mass forecasts, and the timing of the daily maximum before the settlement window closes at **12:00 UTC**. The key dependency is not the evening forecast after the fact but the *highest* temperature recorded during the day at LaGuardia, so a brief early-afternoon spike can settle the market even if temperatures cool later. AccuWeather’s late-July outlook for New York City has shown highs around the upper-80s, which is far below the historical extreme benchmark and helps explain why the contract is trading at a flat zero rather than a thin tail probability.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.