Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 4 July 2026 will settle this market, with the current crowd-implied probability for a "YES" outcome sitting at 0%. On Polymarket, traders price this contract today by buying and selling conditional tokens on the Polygon network using USDC, where the frontrunner outcome is "98–99°F" at 41%, followed closely by "96–97°F" at 39%. These odds shift in real-time as liquidity flows, reflecting the collective view that extreme heat is the most probable scenario for this Independence Day.

Historical patterns at LaGuardia frame how to read this probability, particularly the record-breaking heatwave of early July 2026 when the station hit 104°F, surpassing its 1966 daily high of 101°F[5]. Even more striking is the recent record for the warmest midnight temperature ever, with LaGuardia reaching 94°F at midnight, proving that heat retention in this urban corridor can drive daytime highs well into the 90s[3]. The all-time peak for the station remains 107°F recorded on 3 July 1966, suggesting that a 98–99°F range is a credible, though not guaranteed, outcome for the holiday[9].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service hourly updates for LaGuardia, as current readings show temperatures hovering around 91°F with high humidity[2]. The primary catalyst is the forecasted overnight low and morning cloud cover, which directly influence the daytime peak; clear skies and stagnant air will likely push temperatures toward the 98–99°F range. While no specific announcement is pending, the dependency on the heatwave’s persistence is critical, and any sudden shift in wind patterns or precipitation could alter the settlement outcome significantly.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.