Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 7 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability of 5% favouring a YES result for a specific range. On Polymarket, this contract is priced in USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens reflect the market’s assessment that such an extreme high is unlikely given recent patterns.

Historical data frames this low probability: July 2026 has seen LaGuardia hit 104°F on 2 July, surpassing its 1966 record, yet the 6 July market settled at 70–71°F, indicating mid-70s as the typical high despite the heatwave’s intensity [1][6]. Even during the record-breaking midnight of 94°F on 4 July, daytime highs did not consistently exceed 80°F, suggesting that 74–75°F remains a plausible but not dominant outcome [2][4].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily forecasts for LaGuardia and any updates on the ongoing East Coast heatwave, which recently pushed JFK to 100°F and LaGuardia to its record high [6][7]. A sudden shift in wind patterns or cloud cover could alter the day’s peak, making real-time Wunderground data the critical dependency for settlement [3]. Recent coverage from FOX Weather confirms the heat’s persistence, reinforcing the need to track hourly temperature trends as the settlement window closes [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.