Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the peak daytime heat expected at LaGuardia Airport on 8 July 2026, with the market currently pricing the 84–85°F range as the frontrunner at 53% implied probability, while the 82–83°F range holds 23% support. This pricing reflects a sharp divergence from the crowd-implied 0% chance for any outcome below 80°F, suggesting traders are betting heavily on a continuation of the extreme heatwave that recently shattered records across the northeastern corridor.

Historical precedents frame this aggressive positioning, as the July 4, 2026 heatwave produced temperatures outside the range of modern measurements for a 500-mile stretch from Washington, D.C. to coastal New Jersey, breaking records that stood for up to 154 years simultaneously. LaGuardia specifically recorded a historic midnight temperature of 94°F during that event, surpassing the 1993 record of 93°F and confirming that the atmospheric conditions are capable of sustaining extreme highs well into the night, which bolsters confidence in the 84–85°F outcome.

Traders must monitor the National Weather Service climatological reports and any updates from FOX Weather regarding the persistence of the heat dome, as the settlement depends entirely on the highest temperature recorded at any time on that specific day. The on-chain mechanics on Polymarket, utilising USDC on the Polygon network and conditional tokens, allow for precise exposure to these temperature ranges, meaning the current 53% price for 84–85°F is a direct reflection of the market’s assessment that the recent unprecedented heat will not dissipate before the 2026 settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.