Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 9 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance that the outcome will fall into a specific, higher range. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token on the Polygon network, settled in USDC, where the 0% probability reflects the crowd’s view that extreme heat is unlikely following the recent frontal passage that cooled mid-70s readings into place[1]. At resolution, the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, and any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute, the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly. Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US, UK, and EU, but the easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order order is Polymarket Qué Es.

Historical context frames this low probability: during the early July heatwave, LaGuardia hit 102°F, with midnight temperatures reaching 94°F, yet the recent weather shift has pushed daily highs into the low 70s[1]. FOX Weather reports that New York City recorded its warmest midnight temperature on record early Friday, with an official reading of 94 degrees at LaGuardia Airport, breaking the previous record of 93 set in 2013[2]. Despite this record warmth, the current cooling trend suggests that 9 July will not replicate the peak heat of early July, making the 0% YES price a rational assessment of the prevailing conditions.

Traders should watch the National Weather Service updates for LaGuardia, as any sudden reversal in the frontal system could alter the temperature trajectory[3]. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather indicate July 2026 daily highs ranging from 73° to 91°, with overnight lows between 65° and 76°, suggesting a stable, moderate pattern rather than extreme heat[6]. While American Weather notes that 107 degrees was recorded at LaGuardia on 3 July 1966, the current data points to a much milder outcome, reinforcing the market’s confidence in the 0% probability[10]. No announcements or schedules currently suggest a catalyst for a heat spike, leaving the market’s pricing aligned with the observed weather trends.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.