Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026 was 71°F, a notably cool day for late June in New York City. This outcome resolved the prediction market to the 71°F range, contradicting the crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome below 82°F. The market, priced on Polymarket using USDC on the Polygon network, settled with the 82–83°F contract at 100% prior to resolution, reflecting a strong but incorrect consensus among traders relying on seasonal norms rather than real-time weather anomalies.

Historical June highs at LaGuardia typically range between 77°F and 92°F, with an average near 84°F, making the 71°F reading a significant outlier. Comparable cases include 24 June 2026, when the market also priced 82–83°F at 100% before resolving to the same range, suggesting a pattern of overconfidence in warm-weather forecasts. Traders should watch for early-season cold fronts, cloud cover duration, and precipitation schedules, as these factors can suppress daytime highs. Recent NWS climatological reports for 26 June 2026 confirm the day was partly cloudy with a high of 71°F, underscoring the importance of monitoring official weather bulletins before committing capital to conditional tokens.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.