Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, with settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability, reflecting either extreme illiquidity or a technical artefact in how conditional tokens have been distributed across the outcome buckets on Polygon. USDC collateral backing this contract remains undeployed across meaningful positions, suggesting traders have not yet committed capital to any particular temperature band.

August temperatures at Le Bourget historically cluster between 24–28°C, with extremes reaching 32–35°C during heat waves. The 2003 European heat wave saw Paris record 40.3°C, though such events remain statistical outliers. Recent summers have produced peaks in the 28–31°C range more consistently. A trader evaluating this market should examine the specific temperature brackets offered; if the ranges are poorly calibrated—for instance, if one bucket covers 25–27°C whilst another spans 27–32°C—the pricing distortion explains why no probability mass has accumulated.

Meteorological forecasting for August 2026 remains impossible at present, but traders should monitor European weather patterns from late July onwards. Atlantic pressure systems and Azores high positioning typically determine whether continental heat dominates or Atlantic moisture moderates temperatures. Any major climate announcement or revised seasonal outlooks from Météo-France in the weeks preceding the settlement window could shift expectations, though such shifts would only matter once meaningful liquidity enters the market.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.