Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 August 2026, Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record a daily maximum temperature, and this market resolves to whichever Celsius range contains that figure as logged in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The 0% YES probability currently priced on Polymarket reflects the conditional token structure's settlement mechanics: traders holding YES tokens denominated in USDC on Polygon stand to profit only if the actual high falls within their selected range, making the pricing sensitive to both meteorological likelihood and the granularity of available brackets.

August in the Île-de-France region typically produces highs between 24–27°C, though extremes have occurred. The 2003 European heat wave saw Paris record 40.3°C on 4 August, whilst more recent summers have remained closer to historical norms; the decade from 2015–2025 averaged August highs around 25–26°C at Le Bourget. The current crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a scenario where the temperature falls outside the lowest available range, or that uncertainty about the specific bracket structure is suppressing YES positions across the board.

Météo-France's seasonal forecasts and any Atlantic weather pattern shifts in summer 2026 will shape trader positioning. The resolution hinges entirely on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when automated weather stations report minute-by-minute data; traders should verify Le Bourget's station metadata and any planned maintenance windows before settlement on 12 August 2026.

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on August 19? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.