Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Paris heat contract at **0% YES** right now, so the market is effectively treating a qualifying high at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 4 August 2026 as extremely unlikely. Settlement depends on the **highest temperature recorded that day** at the specified station, with the result read from Wunderground and paid out in USDC via Polygon conditional tokens, so the practical question for holders is whether the day’s observed maximum lands inside a higher temperature band than the one currently implied by the order book.

The historical frame is straightforward: early-August Paris is usually warm rather than extreme, which makes a very high intraday print possible but not routine. Long-run August guides put Paris’s typical highs around **23–26°C**, with average highs near **76°F/24°C** and a listed **highest daily average high on 4 August of about 78°F/26°C**; some forecast sources for this week also point to highs near **30–32°C**, which would support a stronger outcome than the usual seasonal baseline if that heat materialises over the airport station. [10][11][13]

For traders, the key catalysts are the **daytime forecast updates**, any **heat warnings**, and whether cloud cover or showers keep the airport below city-centre forecasts. Recent Paris weather coverage has flagged a possible morning shower-and-thunderstorm setup followed by sunnier conditions and warmer highs, which matters because a short-lived spike can still set the daily maximum before noon UTC settlement closes. Since the market resolves on a specific station reading rather than general Paris weather, the live Wunderground history page and short-range local forecasts are the main dependencies to watch rather than broad city averages. [6][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on August 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.