Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Paris airport temperature contract at **0% YES**, so the market is treating a qualifying high for 5 August as effectively off the board for now. That is a thin reading rather than a forecast guarantee: the contract settles on the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport in Celsius on the day, with the outcome sourced from Wunderground and tokenised through Polymarket’s USDC-on-Polygon conditional-token structure.

For historical context, Paris in August typically sits in the mid-20s Celsius, but day-to-day highs can vary enough to move a range market if a warm spell develops. Current August 2026 forecasts for Paris cluster around the mid-20s to high-20s Celsius, with one source showing a dry, sunny day near 29°C and others nearer 24–26°C, which is consistent with a summer market that can still print above average if the heat ridge holds. [1][3][8][10]

A trader should watch the day’s intraday forecast updates, especially any change in cloud cover, wind and the presence or absence of showers over north-eastern Paris, because the settlement is driven by the single highest reading rather than the evening close. Ouest-France and Sortir à Paris both point to a fair, warm morning and a dry, sunny setup, but the exact print at Le Bourget can differ from city-centre forecasts, so the relevant catalyst is the station-level Wunderground history page as temperatures evolve through the day. [2][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.