Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Paris temperature contract at **1% YES**, so the market is treating a qualifying top-end reading at Paris-Le Bourget Airport as a very low-probability outcome despite the summer setup. On Polymarket, traders are effectively buying and selling conditional tokens on Polygon in USDC, and a YES share only pays out if the highest temperature in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table for 9 August 2026 lands in the relevant Celsius range.

For context, the price is easier to read against recent Paris heat rather than the calendar alone. Forecast and climate pages for early August show Paris running warm, with one 9 August forecast putting the day around 34°C/21°C and another extending to about 30°C, while a recent Paris weather summary noted the month’s highest maximum so far at 36.4°C on 3 August.[7][8][3] That matters because this market resolves off the station reading, not the broader city feel, and because the contract is range-based: a small miss in the reported maximum can move value into a different bucket.

A trader watching this market should focus on the final Wunderground Daily Observations feed for Paris-Le Bourget Airport, plus any late-day showers, cloud cover, or wind changes that could cap the maximum before 12:00 UTC settlement. Time and Date’s extended forecast has been calling for cloudy conditions with showers late on Sunday and a high near 90°F, which is consistent with a warm but not extreme outcome.[9] In practical terms, the key dependency is whether the station’s observed high clears the next temperature band before the settlement window closes, because that is what determines which conditional token redeems at $1.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on August 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.