Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget is set to record its highest temperature for 13 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a specific extreme-heat outcome at just 1% YES. On Polymarket, this conditional token trades on the Polygon network using USDC, where the crowd’s 1% implied probability suggests traders view a record-breaking spike as highly unlikely for this specific date. The contract resolves strictly on the Wunderground reading for the airport station, locking in the Celsius value once the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC.

Historical data frames this low probability against Paris’s typical July highs, which average between 23°C and 25°C and rarely exceed 31°C [1]. While France shattered national records in 2019 with 42.4°C in Paris and again in 2022 during a brutal heatwave, those extremes occurred later in the month or in different regions [2][3]. The 1% price likely reflects the statistical rarity of a 40°C+ day specifically on 13 July, given that recent record-breaking events in June 2026 peaked at 35.7°C south of London rather than in the capital [8].

Traders should monitor the Metéofrance red alert schedule and daily 6:00 UTC forecasts for the Île-de-France region, as any sudden shift in atmospheric pressure could alter the day’s thermal profile. Recent news from June 2026 highlighted Europe’s susceptibility to intense heatwaves, with France recording its hottest day ever just weeks prior, creating a volatile backdrop for mid-July weather [9]. Since the resolution depends entirely on the single daily maximum at Le Bourget, a clear sky with high-pressure dominance remains the primary catalyst for any deviation from the current 1% pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.