Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 24 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will settle this market into one of several defined ranges. Polymarket currently prices all outcome bins at 0% YES, reflecting the contract's recent listing status and the absence of real-time weather data for a date eighteen months forward. Settlement depends on historical temperature records pulled from Wunderground's database for that specific station, with the settlement window closing at midday UTC on the resolution date itself.

Paris experiences peak summer heat in late July, with historical highs at Le Bourget typically ranging between 28°C and 32°C during this period. The station's record high of 40.4°C (set in August 2003 during the European heatwave) remains an outlier; July averages have rarely exceeded 35°C in the modern record. Traders should reference Météo-France's thirty-year climate normals and recent July temperature distributions to calibrate expectations around the most probable outcome bins, as these provide the empirical baseline against which any 2026 reading will be assessed.

Seasonal weather forecasting becomes actionable only within two to three weeks of the target date, meaning current market prices reflect pure structural uncertainty rather than meteorological signals. The relevant catalyst will be late June and early July 2026 atmospheric patterns—particularly the position of high-pressure systems over western Europe and any Atlantic tropical activity that might influence continental conditions. Traders monitoring European weather models from mid-July onwards will gain genuine informational advantage over the current flat pricing.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.