Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 27 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station will determine which range this market resolves to. Polymarket currently prices all temperature bands at 0% YES, reflecting the settlement window's closure before real-time data becomes available. The contract settles against Wunderground's historical weather records for that specific date and location, with traders required to verify the reading via the Paris-Le Bourget station's documented high.

Paris summer temperatures typically peak between 24–28°C in late July, though heat waves can push readings above 30°C. The city experienced 40.3°C on 25 June 2022 during an exceptional European heat event, and 42.6°C on 28 June 2019. More representative recent Julys have seen highs in the 26–29°C range. Historical volatility around this period suggests traders should reference multi-year datasets rather than single anomalous years when assessing probability distributions across the available temperature bands.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European weather forecasts from mid-July 2026 onwards, particularly from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Atmospheric pressure systems, jet stream positioning, and any developing heat domes over continental Europe in the weeks preceding 27 July will signal whether conditions favour above-average or typical seasonal temperatures. Once the settlement date passes, resolution depends entirely on Wunderground's archived station data, making real-time forecast accuracy less relevant than the eventual recorded measurement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.