Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 5 July 2026, Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record its daily maximum temperature, a single figure that determines the outcome of a conditional token market on Polymarket. Today, the contract for a 30°C peak trades at 44.5% implied probability, priced in USDC on the Polygon network, while the NO side remains the mathematical favourite due to the ten alternative temperature buckets. This pricing reflects a modal forecast centred between 29°C and 31°C, yet the thin volume and healthy liquidity suggest the market is highly sensitive to the next Météo-France or ECMWF update before resolution at 12:00 UTC.

Historical context frames this probability as cautious; France recently endured its hottest May day since records began, with southwestern temperatures hitting 37.8°C, and a powerful heatwave is now forecast to impact the country through early July, potentially pushing southern regions to 38–41°C while Paris faces 35–38°C. Although the national thermal indicator previously peaked at 29.8°C, the current red heat-wave alert for 54 departments and forecasts of daytime highs reaching 42°C in hot spots indicate that a 30°C peak in Paris is plausible but not guaranteed, as any deviation to 29°C or 31°C triggers a NO payout.

Traders must monitor the official Météo-France daily bulletins and the ECMWF model updates, which are the primary catalysts for price movement in this USDC-denominated market. The heatwave is expected to persist for 7 to 10 days, with the hottest temperatures likely in the south and central regions, meaning Paris could experience feels-like temperatures far exceeding the dry reading. With only two days to resolution, the contract’s sensitivity to these forecast revisions is extreme, and the current 44.5% price for exactly 30°C assumes the modal peak aligns precisely with that value despite the significant probability mass spread across adjacent buckets.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.