Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on June 26?

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Market context

Paris is currently under a red-alert heatwave, with temperatures easing slightly but still pushing dangerously high across the Île-de-France region. On Polymarket, the contract for the highest temperature reaching 41°C on 26 June 2026 at Paris-Le Bourget Airport is priced at 0% YES, reflecting the crowd’s belief that this threshold will not be breached despite the ongoing extreme conditions.

Historically, Paris has broken its June record multiple times in recent years, with 38.4°C already recorded earlier this month and national averages hitting 29.8°C—the highest ever for France[3][4]. While Biarritz recently saw 42.9°C, Paris itself has not yet reached 41°C in June, and today’s forecast suggests highs around 37°C with easing temperatures by Saturday[1][6]. This context explains why the market assigns near-zero probability to the 41°C outcome.

Traders should monitor the red-alert extension status and any sudden shifts in weather patterns, including heat-driven storms expected later today[1]. The resolution depends entirely on Wunderground’s official reading for Paris-Le Bourget, and any deviation from current forecasts could alter the outcome. With liquidity thin and price action sharp, the market remains sensitive to real-time updates from France’s national weather agency[2][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.