Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Qingdao on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Qingdao’s highest temperature on 16 July 2026 will be measured at the Jiaodong International Airport Station, with settlement tied to Wunderground’s daily record in degrees Celsius. On Polymarket, this contract trades on Polygon using USDC, where conditional tokens reflect the crowd’s view that any specific temperature range above the current implied floor has zero probability of being the highest, yet the frontrunner is 29°C at 25% and 30°C also sits at 25%, indicating the market expects a mid-to-high summer day rather than an extreme outlier [1].

Historical July data for Qingdao shows average highs of 29°C (83°F) with a 34% chance of rain, suggesting that temperatures clustering around 29–30°C are typical rather than anomalous [2]. The current 0% YES probability for the market’s binary framing likely stems from how the question is structured—perhaps asking whether the temperature exceeds a threshold not met by the median—while the range-based outcomes show meaningful liquidity concentrated on 29°C and 30°C, aligning with the long-term average [1][2].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground for the ZSQD station on 16 July, as cloud cover, precipitation, and wind speed (historically ~19.3 kph in July) can shift the peak temperature within hours [2]. No official announcements are expected to alter the measurement, but sudden rain events—common in 34% of July days—could suppress the high below 29°C, making the 28°C or lower ranges more probable as the day progresses [2].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Qingdao on July 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.