Pronóstico: Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco International Airport’s highest recorded temperature on 10 August is the event Polymarket is pricing today, and the contract is trading on Polygon in USDC through conditional tokens, so the crowd view is simply the implied probability that the final Weather Underground observation lands in one of the listed temperature bands. The market is showing 0% YES overall in your prompt, but the event page data points to the contract being concentrated in the mid-70s alternatives rather than an extreme heat outcome.[1][17]

For context, San Francisco’s August climate is usually mild rather than hot, with normals around the low-70s Fahrenheit for highs and the airport station’s daily maximum on 10 August often settling close to the upper 60s or low 70s.[6][15] Comparable readings in the historical feed and nearby forecast products show how tightly clustered outcomes usually are: recent August highs at or near 68–71°F have been common, while the airport’s record for 10 August is 87°F, illustrating that a very hot print is possible but uncommon.[4][6][9] That is why a zero-priced tail outcome usually reflects the market’s view that the observed maximum will stay within the familiar marine-layer band rather than break into a rare heat spike.[1][10]

A trader watching this market should focus on the Weather Underground daily observations for KSFO, not the headline “Day High & Low” summary, because the market rules say the table is primary if the two differ.[1][17] The key catalyst is the first published observation for 11 August, which closes the measurement window for the prior day and locks in any revisions made before that point.[1] NWS and AccuWeather both showed a persistent coastal influence and mostly cloudy or low-cloud conditions around the period in question, which matters because onshore flow can cap the airport high even when inland parts of the Bay Area warm more quickly.[3][12][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.