Pronóstico: Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s highest temperature on 12 July 2026 will be measured at the San Francisco International Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Fahrenheit range containing that peak. Today, Polymarket prices the YES contract at 0% for any outcome implying a record-breaking heatwave, reflecting the crowd’s confidence that temperatures will stay within the city’s typical July band. On Polygon, traders use USDC to hold conditional tokens that settle once Wunderground publishes the official daily high at 12:00 UTC.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability logically: July highs in San Francisco average around 70°F, rarely exceeding 79°F, with the all-time record for 12 July being 86°F in 1983 [1][4]. Recent years show even cooler extremes, including a 57°F high on 12 July 2021 that tied the record low maximum for the date [9]. The 2026 July so far has been unusually cool for the Bay Area, with some days near historic lows, reinforcing the market’s dismissal of extreme heat scenarios [10].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service Bay Area forecasts for shifts in the marine layer and high-pressure systems, which directly dictate whether the sea breeze arrives late or burns off early [2]. A sudden influx of high pressure could deflect storms and push temperatures above normal in August, but July 12 remains anchored to typical coastal cooling patterns [7]. No major heat announcements are scheduled, and the settlement depends solely on the Wunderground record for KSFO, making real-time weather updates the only meaningful catalyst.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.