Pronóstico: Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco is expected to hit its peak heat on 14 July 2026, with the market overwhelmingly betting the highest temperature at the International Airport will land between 78–79°F. Polymarket prices this contract today with the 78–79°F range commanding a 93% probability, while the 80–81°F bracket sits at just 6%, leaving the YES outcome for any other range at 0% [1]. This pricing reflects a tight consensus among traders using USDC on Polygon, where conditional tokens lock in these implied odds until the settlement window closes at 2026-07-14T12:00:00Z.

Historically, mid-July highs in San Francisco rarely breach 80°F due to the city’s marine layer, making the 78–79°F frontrunner a statistically sound play. BBC Weather data for the airport shows current conditions at 59°F with rising pressure, consistent with the cool, stable patterns that typically suppress extreme heat in this season [2]. The 0% probability on alternative ranges suggests traders view a significant heat spike as an outlier, aligning with decades of local climate records where July peaks cluster firmly below 80°F.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily forecast updates for the Bay Area, as any sudden breakdown in the marine layer could act as a catalyst for higher temperatures. While no specific announcements are pending, the dependency on real-time Wunderground data—specifically the KSFO station record—means the market will resolve strictly on the official daily maximum, not estimates [1]. With settlement fixed to 14 July, liquidity remains concentrated on the frontrunner, and any deviation from the 78–79°F range would require an unseasonal atmospheric shift.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.