Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport on 9 July 2026, a date that falls in the city’s coolest month. Historical data confirms July averages between 11°C and 22°C, with daily highs rarely exceeding 22°C and typically hovering near 18°C[7]. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the contract resolving YES if the temperature hits exactly 23°C, a figure that aligns with decades of on-the-ground records showing 23°C is an outlier for this period[1]. Even during recent severe heatwaves in Brazil, such as the one in Rio de Janeiro where perceived temperatures reached 62°C, São Paulo’s actual recorded highs remained well below 23°C in July, with the city’s highest December record being 35.9°C but July peaks staying lower[3][6].

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground release for SBGR on 9 July, as the market resolves solely on this conditional token’s data feed, settled in USDC on the Polygon network. Key catalysts include any unexpected weather model updates from AccuWeather or PredictWind forecasting a sudden spike above 22°C, though current forecasts show highs ranging only 66°F to 81°F (19°C to 27°C) with an average of 74°F (23°C) which is a monthly average, not a daily peak for July[1][9]. No major climate announcements are scheduled for early July 2026, and the settlement window ending 2026-07-09T12:00:00Z means the market will close before the afternoon heat, relying on the morning’s conditional token reading. The 0% probability reflects the statistical improbability of a 23°C peak in São Paulo’s winter, making the contract a clear short for on-chain participants.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.