Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seattle on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle’s highest temperature on 4 August is trading at a market-implied **0% YES** in Polymarket terms, even though the book is still live in USDC on Polygon and resolves through the conditional-token payout if the chosen temperature band matches the Weather Underground KSEA daily high. That zero print is best read as a very thin or stale price rather than a statement that heat is impossible; Polymarket’s own page still shows active outcomes around the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, with **84–85°F** leading and **82–83°F** next, which is broadly consistent with a summer warm-up scenario in western Washington.[2][4]

The historical frame is straightforward: Seattle’s August climate is usually warm rather than extreme, with typical monthly highs in the 70s Fahrenheit, while weather services and long-range outlooks describe August as one of the city’s drier and warmer periods.[1][8][9] For a contract settled on a single airport station reading, the practical question is not whether Seattle is “hot”, but whether the day peaks in a narrow one-degree bucket; that makes outcomes around the mid-80s more sensitive to small forecast changes than the average temperature pattern would suggest.[2][7]

A trader should watch the sequence of forecast updates, especially any shift in the upper-level ridge pattern, cloud cover, or marine push that can clip the afternoon high at Sea-Tac. The key dependency is the Weather Underground history table for KSEA, because the market resolves on the final daily high once the first observation for the following day is published; until then, revisions to the day’s temperatures can still matter.[4] If National Weather Service guidance or short-range model runs move the expected peak by even 1–2°F, the probability mass can migrate quickly between adjacent temperature bands.[2][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.