Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seattle on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the **92–93°F** band as the likeliest result for Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on 22 July, with the contract implying that traders in USDC on Polygon see that outcome as the current frontrunner. The market settles on the highest temperature recorded at the airport station, using the Wunderground daily history page as the reference, so the key question is not the citywide afternoon high in abstract but the single top reading that prints there during the day.

A 0% yes price across the market is easiest to read against the spread of nearby temperature bands rather than as a literal forecast of impossibility. Polymarket’s live odds already show a fairly concentrated view around the low 90s, with 92–93°F leading and 90–91°F next, which suggests traders are positioning for a warm but not extreme outcome. In weather markets like this, the final print can hinge on a brief early-afternoon spike, so the exact airport observation matters more than broad regional averages.

For traders, the practical catalysts are the same ones that move the day’s realised maximum: updated National Weather Service forecasts, any heat advisory or marine layer changes, and the timing of the warmest part of the afternoon relative to airport conditions. Seattle has recently seen forecasts swing between the low 80s and mid-80s during hot spells, which shows how quickly a local high can shift when cloud cover or inland flow changes. That makes the last few forecast runs, rather than the morning weather, the main input for anyone holding conditional tokens through settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seattle on July 22? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.