Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Seoul/Incheon temperature contract at **0% YES** right now, even though the board’s own listing shows the main nearby outcomes clustered around the mid-30s Celsius. On Polymarket, traders fund positions in **USDC** on **Polygon**, with outcome shares settling through the market’s **conditional token** structure once Weather Underground’s Incheon Intl Airport Station data locks the result. [2]

That zero bid is best read against the recent heatwave backdrop. South Korea has just logged extreme readings, including a national record of **42.5°C** in Yangsan and Seoul itself reaching **40°C+** in early August, which keeps the upper tail of the distribution alive even for an airport station that typically runs cooler than inner Seoul. Reuters said Seoul was forecast to reach about **39°C** during the heatwave peak, while KMA and market guidance on Polymarket have pointed to a narrower band around **33–34°C** for the day in question. [9][10][2]

For traders, the main catalysts are the **morning and early-afternoon observations** at Incheon Airport, because the market resolves off the **highest temperature in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table**, not the summary “Day High & Low” figure. Any late spike from clear skies, downslope warming, or a less cloudy midday window would matter more than the overnight minimum; by contrast, cloud thickening or scattered showers would favour a lower final print. Polymarket also notes that revisions within the observation window can still count until the first datapoint for the following date is published. [2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.