Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this contract with **34°C** as the leading outcome at about **21%**, while **29°C** is next at roughly **20%**, and the crowd is assigning **0%** to the top bucket. That matters because the market settles on the **highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station** during the day, not on the Seoul city forecast, so traders are effectively pricing the airport’s peak reading inside the conditional-token structure backed by USDC on Polygon.[9]

The recent weather backdrop argues for keeping the upper tail in view. South Korea has just logged successive extreme-heat readings, including a national record of **42.5°C** in Yangsan, and forecasters have said the heat wave is pushing westwards, with **Seoul and Incheon forecast around 32–37°C** on 3 August and Incheon specifically around **32–34°C** in some reports.[3][6][12][1] For a one-day airport high, that leaves a wide band where a brief mid-afternoon spike can matter more than the headline daily forecast.

A trader should watch the Korea Meteorological Administration short-range forecast, airport-area cloud cover and sea breeze timing, and any late-day adjustments to the regional heat outlook, because those can shift the intraday peak materially before settlement. With the market resolving from the Wunderground history page for RKSI, the practical catalyst is not an announcement but the evolving local forecast versus the realised maximum at the station, which can diverge from city-level temperatures.[15][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.