Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 1 July 2026, a date that sits squarely within South Korea’s hot, humid monsoon season. Historical data shows July is the rainiest month in Korea, with daily average highs often reaching 30°C and feeling like over 34°C due to humidity exceeding 80%[1]. AccuWeather forecasts for Seoul in July 2026 indicate daily highs between 27°C and 32°C (81°–89°F), with an average high of 29°C (85°F)[3]. While extreme heatwaves have struck the region—such as the 36°C spike forecast for 8–9 July 2026 in Greater Seoul[6]—the first of July typically remains within the 27–31°C range, making a 0% YES probability for a temperature outside this band plausible if the market defines “high” as significantly above 35°C.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for cloud cover and precipitation probability, which currently hover around 20–30% for the morning of 1 July[4][7]. A key catalyst is the timing of the monsoon’s retreat; if the Jangma season lingers into late July, rain could suppress temperatures on 1 July, whereas an early clear-up might trigger a heat spike. Recent reports from Weather.go.kr note mostly cloudy conditions with light winds, which typically limit peak temperatures[7]. Additionally, the Sinchon Water Gun Festival in late July suggests public awareness of extreme heat, but this event occurs too late to influence 1 July’s weather[1]. For on-chain mechanics, the contract settles on USDC via Polygon using conditional tokens, with the final resolution sourced from Wunderground’s historical daily data for Incheon Airport, ensuring transparency and auditability for Polymarket users.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.