Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, Seoul will experience its peak daily temperature, a real-world event that directly determines the outcome of the prediction market. The contract currently prices the "YES" outcome at 0%, implying the crowd believes the highest temperature will fall outside the specified range. This market resolves based on the Incheon International Airport Station reading from Wunderground, with settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on the day.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability as a rational assessment of typical July conditions. Seoul’s average high in July sits around 27°C, with daily highs usually ranging between 25°C and 30°C, though occasional peaks can reach 37°C during extreme heatwaves [1][5]. While record-breaking heat occurred recently, with Seoul hitting 37.7°C on 8 July 2026—the highest early-July temperature in 117 years—the 0% price suggests traders expect a return to the norm rather than another anomaly [3][8]. The monsoon season, which brings heavy but short rainfalls and high humidity above 80%, often moderates peak temperatures, making sustained extremes less likely [2].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for rain intensity and temperature fluctuations, as sudden showers can suppress peak heat [9]. The primary catalyst is the official daily high temperature release from Wunderground, which will confirm if the record-breaking trend continues or reverts to the average 27°C baseline [1]. With the market settled on USDC via Polygon using conditional tokens, the on-chain mechanics ensure transparent resolution once the data is published. No further announcements are needed beyond the weather agency’s daily update, which will definitively settle the contract.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.